How much is your low interest rate mortgage worth?

One of the ideas floating around lately is that if you were lucky enough to secure a low interest rate, it is actually a hidden asset in your net worth.

Of course, it’s a little more complicated than that, for example if you move/sell you have to repay your mortgage and that asset would disappear, which is not what typical assets actually do.

But let’s have some fun for a moment and pretend that by borrowing at a low rate we have effectively shorted a 30 year bond, and see how much value we have generated by this trade.

We’ll repurpose our debt amortization spreadsheet from an earlier post.

All we need to do now is to to add a few additional inputs – how many years are left on the mortgage, and what the current mortgage rate is. We’ll then calculate the net present value of the remaining mortgage payments for each year using the current mortgage rate as the discount rate. The difference between that NPV and your mortgage principal is the “asset value”. 

In this example, in year 5 on an original $500k mortgage at 3.25%, the “asset value” of keeping this mortgage when the current market mortgage rate is 7.9% is $170k!

You can play with the Google Spreadsheet here

How a 6% mortgage rate should affect home prices

Today’s post will be an application of our 2019 house rent vs. buy spreadsheet. With the recent jump in mortgage rates to near 6%, we wonder how much house prices are supposed to be down (in theory) if a buyer were perfectly rational and would demand the same internal rate of return from their housing purchase decision.

We’ll pull up our mortgage spreadsheet and enter in some very average metrics for the US:

Home price: $375k, Median rent: $1,800/month, time spent in house before selling: 8 years, rent and other cost inflation: 3.5%, down payment: 20%

We’ll start our mortgage rate at 3.5%, and found the IRR to be 8.12%.

With a mortgage rate of 6%, in order to keep the IRR of buying the house at 8.12%, the house price would have to be $283,430, which is 24% less than the original house price!